Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The CIA triad – Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability – is at the heart of cybersecurity. Ransomware has increasingly targeted confidentiality and availability.

Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?

This question will resolve as Yes if, between March 1, 2022 to July 1, 2022, a major cyber incident has targeted the integrity of system data such that the data remains in the system and readable, but has been injected with incorrect or external data. This question will resolve according to credible reports published on or before December 31, 2022.

An incident is defined as “major” if it does one or more of the following:(a) Impacts a critical infrastructure owner or operator; (b) Costs more than $1 million in damage, whether internally to the company and/or externally to clients and consumers; (c) Causes direct physical harm to one or more persons

Critical infrastructure is defined by the US government as:

"sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof"

An example of this type of attack may include: A hospital hit by ransomware. Integrity loss would result if hackers purposefully mixed, or inserted new, patient information, for example blood types, such that any blood transfusions needing to occur may result in potentially life threatening situations.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts78

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Resizable preview:
33%
Unlikely

The CIA triad – Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability – is at the heart of cybersecurity. Ransomware has increasingly targeted confidentiality and availability.

***Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 78

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