If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?

Metaculus
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In a blog post, Paul Christiano argues that we should consider preserving a message that would be uncovered by a potential future civilization that may arise on Earth if humanity goes extinct. He writes,

If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we may not take all life on Earth with us. That leaves hope for another intelligent civilization to arise; if they do, we could potentially help them by leaving carefully chosen messages.

In this post I’ll argue that despite sounding kind of crazy, this could potentially compare favorably to more conventional extinction risk reduction.

He offers a conditional prediction:

If humanity drives ourselves extinct (without AI), I think there is a ~1/2 chance that another intelligent civilization evolves while the earth remains habitable.

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41%
About Even

In a blog post, Paul Christiano argues that we should consider preserving a message that would be uncovered by a potential future civilization that may arise on Earth if humanity goes extinct. He writes,

If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 213

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