Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
5%Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

Related Questions on Metaculus:

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?

Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked only once in NATO history: by the United States after the attacks on September 11, 2001. Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? This question will resolve in the event that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked by a NATO country. This question may resolve on the basis of official announcements by NATO representatives or government officials.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts397

Capture

5%Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?
  • Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed...
Last updated: 2022-05-22
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 397