Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075? [closed]

• How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

• Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

As of March 2022, the Federation of Atomic Scientists estimated that there are "roughly 12,700 nuclear warheads" deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 2,000 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.

<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/nuclear-warhead-stockpiles" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>

Some activists, such as the Global Zero campaign, wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a strategy of deterrence.