Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?

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In February, 2013, a meteor scorched the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the key details:

A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.

It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.

Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people (russian source, wp)? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.

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In February, 2013, a meteor scorched the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the key details:

A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
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Metaculus
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