Will Praxis Society have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
35%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Praxis Society describes itself as a membership-based intentional community centered around building a city-cryptostate. Praxis Society is building a "city in the cloud" (i.e., the creation of a unified online community) prior to creating a physical city--its Discord server presently has over 10,000 members. It recently raised a $15 million Series A round from various venture capital firms.

Will Praxis Society have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?

This question will resolve as Yes if by January 1, 2040, Praxis Society or its corporate successor has: (1) physically constructed a new city; (2) that city is recognized as a separate municipality and/or special jurisdiction under the laws of the country in which it is located OR constitutes its own separate jurisdiction not subject to any other sovereign state, and (3) has at least 1,000 full-time residents for a minimum period of one year.

If Praxis Society has failed to meet any of the three criteria identified above, this question resolves as No. If Praxis Society or its corporate successor is no longer operational or ceases to exist, this question resolves as No. If the satisfactory resolution of the above criteria, in accordance with the fine print, is ambiguous, the resolution of the question will be determined by Metaculus admins.

[fine-print] Resolution criteria clarification:

(1) Meeting condition (1) requires that Praxis Society's "city" cannot simply constitute the occupation of space in an existing city. For example, 1,000 Praxis Society members occupying a single apartment building in New York does not meet the condition. The Praxis Society city must be developed on what is commonly understood to be either "greenfield" or "brownfield" land with its own, newly (re)developed infrastructure and buildings. Per question discussion, this could include a seastead, city in space, or any other non-land based site.

(2) Meeting condition (2) requires that Praxis Society's "city" is recognized either as a local government unit or special jurisdiction (such as a special economic zone) under the laws of the country (and any relevant subnational administrative division) in which it is located. For example, if Praxis Society has physically built a community within New York such that it meets the common definition of a "neighborhood" but is still governed as a part of the City of New York/Borough of Manhattan, this condition has not been met. Alternatively, if Praxis Society is not subject to the sovereignty of any state, this condition has been met.

(3) Meeting condition (3) requires that either credible media report or government statistics demonstrate that the Praxis Society "city" has been the full-time residence of at least 1,000 people for at least one year. "Full-time residency" can be understood as an individual being physically present in the city for at least 183 days per year. The individual's primary domicile must be within the jurisdiction (ie, the person cannot simply commute into the zone for this criteria to be met). [/fine-print]

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts35

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Praxis Society describes itself as a membership-based intentional community centered around building a city-cryptostate. Praxis Society is building a "city in the cloud" (i.e., the creation of a unified online community) prior to creating a physical...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35

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