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Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Obergefell v. Hodges, 576 U.S. 644 (2015), is a landmark civil rights case in which the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that the fundamental right to marry is guaranteed to same-sex couples by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The 5–4 ruling requires all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the Insular Areas to perform and recognize the marriages of same-sex couples on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and responsibilities.

In the years following the ruling in Obergefell, during the Trump administration, several justices departed the Court and were replaced by justices widely considered to be conservative, altering the balance of the Court. Some observers now consider the Court to be 'aggressively conservative', and in the midst of a 'conservative revolution'.

Some now believe that the SCOTUS may eventually overturn various precedentially important rulings, including Roe v. Wade, Lawrence v. Texas, and Obergefell v. Hodges.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts489

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Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Obergefell v. Hodges, 576 U.S. 644 (2015), is a landmark civil rights case in which the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that the fundamental right to marry is guaranteed to same-sex couples by both the Due Process Clause and the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 489

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