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Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
5%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

In 2021, the Parliament of Hungary promulgated the so-called Hungarian anti-LGBT law, which aims to ban all content for children that may "promote homosexuality" and which makes a relationship between LGBT and pedophilia. This received a heavy negative response from other EU countries, with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte suggesting Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán to leave the EU.

Hungary is legally allowed to leave the EU according to Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. Therefore, the country could leave the union after the organization of a referendum, for which it would be necessary to change the Constitution of Hungary with the support of two-thirds of the Hungarian parliament. However, withdrawal from the EU is not popular among the Hungarian public. In 2020, 85% of polled Hungarians supported the membership of the country in the union.

Source: Wikipedia article on the Hungarian withdrawal from the EU.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts205

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2021, the Parliament of Hungary promulgated the so-called Hungarian anti-LGBT law, which aims to ban all content for children that may "promote homosexuality" and which makes a relationship between LGBT and pedophilia. This received a heavy...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 205

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