Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
8%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are two regions on the border of Russia and Georgia. The two regions were under Georgian control after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, though separatist movements in both regions challenged Georgian authority. These tensions reached a climax in the 12-day Russo-Georgian War, after which Russia formally recognized both states as independent nations. Georgia and the vast majority of UN nations regard both states to be part of Georgia, though Georgia does not have control over the regions.

In January 2021, the European Court of Human Rights determined that Russia has held "effective control" of the two regions since August 2008, and is thus responsible for acts of torture and human rights abuses which since occurred there. The court estimated that in 2020, Russia had as many as 1 soldier per 8 residents in South Ossetia.

On March 30, 2022, South Ossetian President Anatoliy Bibilov proposed a referendum on formally joining the Russian Federation, stating "Unification with Russia is our strategic goal, our path, the hope of our people, and we will move on this path". Abkhazian Parliamentary Speaker Valery Kvarchia, in response to questions on whether Abkhazia would follow this path, stated, "Russia is our strategic partner, a dear and close state, but we in the republic (of Abkhazia) have no intention of joining the Russian Federation"

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts133

Capture

Resizable preview:
8%
Very unlikely

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are two regions on the border of Russia and Georgia. The two regions were under Georgian control after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, though separatist movements in both regions challenged Georgian authority. These...

Last updated: 2024-02-23
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 133

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-10766" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />