Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

The Kuril Islands Dispute is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their competing claims over the Kuril Islands.

Although attempts at a peace agreement have been pursued by both parties through the 2010s, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated animosity between Japan and Russia. In March 2022 Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi re-affirmed the Japanese claim to the Kuril Islands. Later in March, Russian armed forces performed military drills with 3,000 personnel in the Kuril Islands area.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts167

Capture

Resizable preview:
3%
Very unlikely

The Kuril Islands Dispute is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 167

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