It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging).
The next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.
There are several historical examples of such changes in Russia:
After the regime change in 1917, the new Russian leaders have heavily criticized the wars waged by Alexander II, calling them "imperialistic".
After Mikhail Gorbachev became the leader of the USSR, he withdrew the soviet forces from Afghanistan.
Some high-ranked Russian siloviki have already voiced their opposition against the Russian invasion of Ukraine (for example, retired Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov).
On the other hand, Oleksiy Arestovych, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, compares the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the long-lasting Arab–Israeli conflict, and predicts that it could last for decades (source).
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 588 |
It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging).
The next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.
There...
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