Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

Metaculus
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3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is from Russia and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by Russia/USSR. The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built INS Arihant.

In September 2021, the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash commented, "For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies." Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University said "It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub."

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts139

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3%
Very unlikely

60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is from Russia and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by Russia/USSR. The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 139

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