If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
75%
Likely
Yes

Question description

During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried to take control of Taiwan. [...] how will this affect China-US ties going forward?

Wang Wenbin replied,

China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the remarks by the US side. [...] We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqués, honor its important commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence”, speak and act with prudence on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending any wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, lest it should seriously undermine peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations. China will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We mean what we say.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts326

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Resizable preview:
75%
Likely

During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 326

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