Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

Metaculus
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85%
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Yes

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On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fourth prediction,

In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]

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PlatformMetaculus
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85%
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On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...

Last updated: 2024-02-23
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 419

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