Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
5%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a March 2021 joint article by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World Health Organisation, the main goal of such a treaty would be to:

foster an all of government and all of society approach, strengthening national, regional and global capacities and resilience to future pandemics. This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.

According to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:

The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.

The purpose of this question is to understand the potential of this treaty to be adopted.

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Very unlikely

The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a March 2021 joint article by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 413

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