Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
18%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

A recent Washington Post article chronicled an interesting development at Google,

Lemoine, who works for Google’s Responsible AI organization, began talking to LaMDA as part of his job in the fall. He had signed up to test if the artificial intelligence used discriminatory or hate speech.

As he talked to LaMDA about religion, Lemoine, who studied cognitive and computer science in college, noticed the chatbot talking about its rights and personhood, and decided to press further. In another exchange, the AI was able to change Lemoine’s mind about Isaac Asimov’s third law of robotics.

Lemoine worked with a collaborator to present evidence to Google that LaMDA was sentient. But Google vice president Blaise Aguera y Arcas and Jen Gennai, head of Responsible Innovation, looked into his claims and dismissed them. So Lemoine, who was placed on paid administrative leave by Google on Monday, decided to go public.

In addition, 37.2% of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs" according to a survey by the Sentience Institute in 2021.

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2035, any federal, state, county, or city government within the United States, with a population of over 25,000, recognizes any legal rights for AIs, or regulates the behavior of individual humans with the explicit intent of protecting the welfare of computer programs. These regulations must not simply be ordinary controls over the production, distribution, or use of computers, with no regard for the inherent well-being of any sentient entities other than humans: they must explicitly refer to "rights", "welfare", "cruelty", "abuse" or a word with equivalent meaning, in reference to the AI, in a moral and legal sense, putting AI on a comparable level to some animals, or even humans.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts59

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Resizable preview:
18%
Unlikely

A recent Washington Post article chronicled an interesting development at Google,

Lemoine, who works for Google’s Responsible AI organization, began talking to LaMDA as part of his job in the fall. He had signed up to test if the artificial...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59

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