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Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
22%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution.

The possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1699

Capture #

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Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution.

The possible defeat of Russia in...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1699

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