Related question on Metaculus:

• Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?

In the 2022 federal election, the Labor Opposition won 77 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, allowing them to form government with a narrow majority. The Coalition Government lost 10 seats to Labor, 6 to independents and 2 to the Greens (reducing them to 58 seats).

The rise of "community" or "teal" independents has been a remarkable aspect of the 2022 election result, with the independents taking otherwise "blue-ribbon" (safe, long-standing) Liberal seats. While the narrow Labor majority means that in this case the independents have not had to decide which major party to support in government, in a future election they may hold the balance of power.

Liberals has been debating whether the party should try to win back its lost "blue-ribbon" seats or pursue alternative election strategies by appealing to different groups (The Aus, paywalled, The Aus, paywalled, The Monthly, limited free access, The Guardian, not paywalled). Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reportedly proposed a "progressive Liberal" movement could run under a different brand (non-paywall version).