If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

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A key part of the response to the next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen will be how quickly a vaccine can be successfully tested and authorized by FDA so that it can subsequently be widely deployed.

For context, during the COVID-19 pandemic there were 326 days from the first US laboratory-confirmed case on January 20, 2020 until the first FDA-authorized vaccine on December 11, 2020.

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A key part of the response to the next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen will be how quickly a vaccine can be successfully tested and authorized by FDA so that it can subsequently be widely deployed.

For context, during the COVID-19 pandemic there...

Last updated: 2024-05-02
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 130

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