Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama))

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

Joe Biden won the 2020 US Presidential Election against incumbent President Donald Trump. Biden has since expressed his intention multiple times of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican party nominated Donald Trump again. However, a March 2022 poll found that 52% of Americans expected Biden not to run for re-election, versus 29% who expected that he would. Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022.

Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and no candidate (besides Harris), stands out in early polling.

The New York Times reported in June 2022 that many top Democrat officials expressed (off the record) concerns about a Biden re-election campaign, and uncertainty about selecting an alternative nominee.

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is selected by the Democratic National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates not selected by the DNC will resolve as No, for whatever reason (if they are deceased, choose not to seek nomination, withdraw candidacy, are not selected by delegates, or any other reason). This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.

For this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Democratic nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the Democratic National Convention.

[fine-print] If there is no Democratic National Convention convened in the year 2024, or that convention does not select a nominee, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. [/fine-print]

Indicators

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts104

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Joe Biden won the 2020 US Presidential Election against incumbent President Donald Trump. Biden has since expressed his intention multiple times of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican party nominated Donald Trump again. However,...

Last updated: 2022-11-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 104

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