Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?
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A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.
Since 2014, the United Kingdom has voted to leave the EU. However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with 62% of Scottish voters opting for "Remain." (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) The governing Conservative Party then chose the hardest possible Brexit, leaving the Single Market as well as the European Union. Scotland was therefore taken out of the EU against its will and can only realistically rejoin by declaring independence.
The Scottish National Party won half the seats in the Scottish parliament during the 2021 elections even though Scotland has a proportional voting system. The SNP’s leader Nicola Sturgeon has now written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to request a new referendum on independence with a proposed date of October 19, 2023. It is likely that a government response will be delayed by process of choosing a new Prime Minister now Johnson has resigned.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 474 |
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Related Question on Metaculus:
- Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?
A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or...
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