When will global CO2 emissions peak?

Metaculus
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Despite efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, the general trend in CO2 emissions still appears to be increasing. Certain events like recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic caused local peaks. In the case of the 1929 Great depression, the 1929 peak of emissions was only surpassed 9 years later.

When will global CO2 emissions peak?

This question will resolve as the earliest year after 2018 when global CO2 emissions are greater than each of the next 10 calendar years, according to Our World in Data. The exact date of resolution will be January 1, at 00:00 UTC of the reported year.

This question concerns CO2 emissions exclusively, not other greenhouse gases in "CO2 equivalents". If Our World in Data does not report this data continuously up to 2100 (or an earlier potential date of resolution), Metaculus may select another credible source of data at their discretion.

If global CO2 emissions do not peak by the year 2100, this question will resolve as > January 1, 2100.

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Despite efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, the general trend in CO2 emissions still appears to be increasing. Certain events like recessions and the COVID-19 pandemic caused local peaks. In the case of the 1929 Great depression, the 1929 peak of...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
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Metaculus
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