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Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
38%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

From Wikipedia,

The provincial level administrative divisions are the highest-level administrative divisions of China. There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two special administrative regions. The political status of Taiwan Province along with a small fraction of Fujian Province[α] remain in dispute; those are under separate rule by the Republic of China, which is usually referred to as "Taiwan".

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts119

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

From Wikipedia,

The provincial level administrative divisions are the highest-level administrative divisions of China. There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 119

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