Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
15%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The Labour Party is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the "largest party in Western Europe" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.

Labour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010. As of September 2022, the Labour Party is led by Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP, a former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020.

The Labour Party is notably the only British political party with a significant national presence never to have elected a female leader.

The Conservatives first elected a female leader in 1975, Margaret Thatcher, and have since had two more, Theresa May from 2016 to 2019, and Liz Truss, elected in September 2022.

The Green Party of England and Wales first elected a female leader, Caroline Lucas, in 2008.

Plaid Cymru first elected a female leader, Leanne Wood, in 2012.

The Scottish National Party first elected a female leader, Nicola Sturgeon, in 2014.

The UK Independence Party first elected a female leader, Diane James, in 2016 (though James later declined to accept the position before filing paperwork with the Electoral Commission to finalize her election).

The Liberal Democrats first elected a female leader, Jo Swinson, in 2019.

As of September 2022, the Labour Party has not elected any female Leader. Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman have briefly served as Acting Leader during leadership contests, but have not held the position of Leader of the Labour Party on a permanent basis.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts191

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15%
Unlikely

The Labour Party) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the "largest party in Western...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 191

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