Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
29%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

In 2020, Moody's downgraded the UK's long-term credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.

Since 2013, the UK has been downgraded from the highest rating by each of the Big Three credit rating agencies.

As of September 2022, there is concern that the UK's credit rating may be downgraded further in the wake of rapid inflation in Europe and a warning from the IMF concerning the new Government's "mini-budget". This comes accompanied by strong warnings from Moody's about the impact of British fiscal policy.

All three of the Big Three credit rating agencies use variants of letter grading to indicate risk that a country will default on its debt.

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PlatformMetaculus
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29%
Unlikely

In 2020, Moody's downgraded the UK's long-term credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.

Since 2013, the UK has been downgraded from the highest rating by each of the Big Three credit...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 88

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