Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an "accelerated" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's press statement:

We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.

...

Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.

We know it's possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.

This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.

We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.

Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.

We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.

Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath said "A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely."

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if Ukraine is inducted as a full member of NATO before January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC. If Ukraine is officially accepted as on the path to full induction, but does not actually become a full NATO member before 2024, that will not be sufficient to resolve the question as Yes.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts109

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an "accelerated" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's press statement:

We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have...

Last updated: 2023-03-22
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 109

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