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Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
9%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

According to Wikipedia, Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.

An independent initiative calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.

This question asks a simpler and less strict question than its companion; whether there will be any pact against solar geoengineering, even if it doesn't meet the full 5 core commitments and measures of the proposed Agreement.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts172

Capture #

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Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

According to Wikipedia, Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.

An...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 172

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