Will the next "Great Power" war be a nuclear war?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

In geopolitics, a "great power" is a nation that is widely recognized as having a large amount of military power and influence. As taken from this Metaculus question: for the purpose of this question, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. As of 2023, the great powers are therefore United States, China, India, United Kingdom, Russia, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea.

Great power wars occurred frequently in the past, with examples including WWI, WWII, and the various Anglo-French wars. However, no additional great power wars have occurred since WWII. With the development of nuclear weapons, nine nations have acquired them since WWII. Six of these countries are ranked among the top 10 military spenders in the world, i.e. today's "great powers". A belief held by many geopolitical experts is that the threat of mutually-assured destruction created by nuclear weapons has reduced the likelihood and incidence of great power wars, and it is widely debated whether the next such war would involve the use of nuclear weapons.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts43

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20%
Unlikely

In geopolitics, a "great power" is a nation that is widely recognized as having a large amount of military power and influence. As taken from this Metaculus question: for the purpose of this question, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 43

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