Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser "dazzling," and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons.

As both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community.

For example, a January 2007 kinetic ASAT test conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris.

This question asks whether an ASAT weapon will be used by any actor (state or non-state) in a non-test context.