Will US law continue prohibiting NASA cooperation with the Chinese government before 2030?

Metaculus
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Yes

Question description

The following excerpt is taken from this <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-u-s-and-china-cooperate-in-space/">Scientific American article</a> from August 2021:

In 2011 Congress passed a law that included an add-on known as the Wolf Amendment. Named after its mastermind, then representative Frank Wolf of Virginia, the Wolf Amendment prohibits NASA from using federal funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government. Ever since, a potential repeal of the amendment has been a political football, tossed between hawkish factions eager to paint China as an emerging adversary in space and less combative advocates wishing to leverage the country’s meteoric rise in that area to benefit the U.S.

In the Wolf Amendment, explicit authorization from Congress and the FBI is required for NASA to use government funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government and China-affiliated organizations.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
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96%
Very likely

The following excerpt is taken from this <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-u-s-and-china-cooperate-in-space/">Scientific American article</a> from August 2021:

In 2011 Congress passed a law that included an add-on known...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 171

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