Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?

Metaculus
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Yes

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Australia is the world's 20th largest economy by PPP-adjusted GDP, and has suffered only one recession (during the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991.

During the 2021–2022 inflation surge, the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase interest rates in order to address increasing inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has made statements indicating its intent to preserve much of Australia's gains in employment during the tightening cycle, suggesting a less aggressive approach to bringing inflation under control than other central banks around the world.

Nonetheless, as of December 2022, yields on longer-dated Australian Government bonds fell below those of shorter-dated bonds, often interpreted as a signal of a possible upcoming recession.

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53%
About Even

Australia is the world's 20th largest economy by PPP-adjusted GDP, and has suffered only one recession (during the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991.

During the 2021–2022 inflation surge, the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase interest rates in...

Last updated: 2023-11-28
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 90

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