When will US seasonally adjusted annual CPI inflation fall below 3%?

Every month the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index, which measures the price of a basket of consumer goods and services. Comparing its value in one period with that in earlier period yields a measure of price inflation between the two periods. For example, CPI in November 2022 was 298.3, and in November 2021 it was about 278.5. This means the CPI rose by 7.1% in the year leading to November 2022.

Other than during recessions, the year-on-year (Y/Y) CPI change has tended to stay between 1% and 3% since the early 1990s. But in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic inflation rates have risen in many economies of the world. The most recent time the US Y/Y inflation rate was under 3% was March 2021 (2.7%). Since that time it has reached nearly 9%, a level not seen since the 1980s.

FRED, a database run by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, collects seasonally adjusted CPI historical data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

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