When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?
Question description
In every US presidential election from 1856 to 1908, the Republican and Democratic parties received the most or second-most popular votes. In 1912 former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt took second place, beating Republican nominee Taft. That feat has not since been repeated. See this image.
Yet about 56% of Americans say the US would be better represented by a third party, according to a September 2022 Gallup poll.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 20 |
Capture
In every US presidential election from 1856 to 1908, the Republican and Democratic parties received the most or second-most popular votes. In 1912 former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt took second place, beating Republican nominee Taft. That...
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