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Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to decarbonise.

As a Borgen Project report points out:

In 2016, Saudi Arabia announced a new program called Vision 2030. One of the focuses of this program is economic diversification in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the goal is to broaden Saudi Arabia’s exports and income possibilities from oil and gas to other necessary avenues like transportation and entertainment.

However, in Q1 2021, 71.1% of total Saudi Arabian exports were oil exports. This number increased to 78.3% in Q1 2022. According to analysis from UK Department for International Trade total exports are projected to grow at double-digits in 2023, though there remains uncertainty as to the composition of exports going forward, as energy markets have been particularly volatile since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Understanding whether Saudi Arabian exports will successfully diversify away from oil may impact geopolitical, economic, and climate related projections over the next decade.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts100

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 100

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