Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?

Metaculus
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51%
About Even
Yes

Question description

The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly). Election is through the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, more detail is here. The next election is on 19 October 2024.

Johnathan Davis was elected for the first time in 2020, running in the southern seat of Brindabella. The Greens won 10.8% of the primary vote, about 0.6 of a full quota. As other candidates were exhausted from the count Davis received enough preference flows to take the fifth spot. However, due to the vagaries of the Hare-Clark system, at a critical point in the count Davis was ahead another candidate, Werner-Gibbing, by just 82 votes. Had the voting been slightly different, Davis would not have been elected. You can review the final distribution of preferences here.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts64

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51%
About Even

The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly)....

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 64

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