What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?

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Since April 2020, Gallup have run several polls asking "What's your impression of the coronavirus situation in the U.S. today? Is it -- getting a lot worse, getting a little worse, staying about the same, getting a little better or getting a lot better?" In 2020, the poll with the highest percentage of respondents answering 'A lot worse' was at 53% in November. In 2022, the maximum was 33% in the January poll. See below for a table with the 2021-2022 responses:

| | A lot better | A little better | Staying about the same | A little worse | A lot worse | ||-|-||-|-| |2022 Oct 11-19 | 32% | 33% | 24% | 8% | 2% | |2022 Jul 26-Aug 2 | 19% | 23% | 39% | 24% | 6% | |2022 Apr 25-May 1 | 31% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 3% | |2022 Feb 15-23 | 22% | 42% | 25% | 8% | 4% | |2022 Jan 3-14 | 19% | 6% | 22% | 25% | 33% | |2021 Nov 29-Dec 5 | 8% | 23% | 33% | 26% | 9% | |2021 Oct 18-24 | 12% | 39% | 31% | 12% | 6% | |2021 Sep 13-19 | 4% | 16% | 25% | 31% | 23% | |2021 Aug 16-22 | 5% | 10% | 17% | 33% | 35% | |2021 Jul 19-26 | 17% | 24% | 14% | 34% | 12% | |2021 Jun 14-20 | 46% | 43% | 8% | 2% | 1% | |2021 May 18-23 | 42% | 42% | 11% | 3% | 2% | |2021 Apr 19-25 | 23% | 46% | 18% | 10% | 4% | |2021 Mar 15-21 | 24% | 53% | 16% | 5% | 2% | |2021 Feb 14-21 | 10% | 50% | 26% | 9% | 5% | |2021 Jan 25-31 | 5% | 28% | 28% | 24% | 15% |

In late 2022, President Joe Biden has asserted "The Pandemic Is Over". However, there is relevantly high disagreement about this assertion, which is arguably not yet supported by the WHO or a clear majority of US or international public health experts at the time this question was written. However, it was supported in a memo of a political consulting firm Impact Research.

In the October 2022 Gallup poll, 44% of Americans seemed to agree with Biden's assertion, indicating that they thought the situation was getting better. However, there does remain uncertainty about whether and how such polls will hold up through the rest of 2023 and into the 2024 election. That question may become politically important.

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Since April 2020, Gallup have run several polls asking "What's your impression of the coronavirus situation in the U.S. today? Is it -- getting a lot worse, getting a little worse, staying about the same, getting a little better or getting a lot...

Last updated: 2024-04-28
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Metaculus
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