In 2020, the People’s Republic of China ranked as one of the world’s largest exporters and the importers worldwide. Since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China’s importance to the world economy has grown significantly, a phenomenon that has been called the China Trade Shock. Arguably, China’s economic importance continues to grow. For example, China’s exports to the EU were highest in 2021 compared to any of the previous periods.

However, in light of the disruption of global supply chains by the Covid-19 pandemic and the geopolitical developments of recent years, most notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries around the world - including the US and EU member states - are considering or already implementing so-called “onshoring” or “friendshoring” strategies. These strategies aim to move production of important goods to countries with lower political risk, or directly back within one’s own borders. These approaches then lead to a reduction in imports from foreign countries that do not qualify as allies or friends.

While historical trends may suggest a continued growth in international trade, especially between China and Western countries, several factors could lead to a slowdown or reversal of the trend, among them political rivalry between economic blocs, greater protectionism, or prolonged economic recession. All these factors could result in the recent rate of growth in trade volumes not continuing in the period up to 2029.

Between 2010 and 2020, the value of foreign exchange of goods between OECD Member countries and China rose by 29.8% from $2.09 to $2.71 trillion. After adjusting for inflation, the increase was 9.38%.

What will be the percentage change of international trade in goods volume between OECD Member countries and the People’s Republic of China in 2029 compared to 2019, adjusted for inflation?