Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, 31 countries have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (among them Germany and the United Kingdom) as well as the United States and Japan.

Prior to the invasion, Germany rejected arms deliveries wholesale in an attempt to de-escalate. However, this decision was reverted as Russia invaded, and countries like the US and Germany sent lethal military aid to Ukraine before the end of February. These early shipments included Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and a variety of anti-tank weapons, which both represent defensive weapons that were quick to deploy and arguably played a pivotal role in the successful Ukrainian defensive in the first months of the war.

In late spring 2022, military aid to Ukraine had expanded to deliveries of Soviet-era tanks by Poland and artillery. In summer, Ukraine received high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the United States which have been described as having been crucial in both defensive and offensive operations.

As the conflict heads for its 1-year anniversary, Western allies have, for the first time and after long public debate, committed modern NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine, such as the Challenger 2 supplied by the United Kingdom. Germany also committed to sending Leopard-2 main battle tanks (while also agreeing to the re-export of other such tanks), and the United States committed Abrams tanks. This represented a further move by Western countries in supplying weapons that would be crucial in offensive operations such as retaking occupied land.

In late January 2023, shortly after receiving commitments on NATO main battle tanks, Ukrainian officials have asked for fighter jets, especially F-16s. So far, the UK and the US have ruled out sending F-16 fighter jets, but France has signalled openness, stating that “by definition, nothing is excluded”. Further, the Dutch Foreign Minister has declared readiness to consider transferring F-16s.

There are some reports that Poland transferred Soviet-designed MiG-29s (or its spare parts) to Ukraine in early 2022, but these reports are disputed and it is unclear whether and/or how many fighters were delivered.

Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from credible sources shows that at least one NATO country has announced a commitment of at least 1 F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine.

This question will resolve as No if no NATO country officially commits to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before January 1, 2024.

[fine-print] For this question, all types of F-16 fighter jets are considered equally and will count for resolution if committed. [/fine-print]