In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. A Metaculus question about whether she'd visit attracted 540 predictions from 167 forecasters.
On January 23, 2023, reports surfaced that the Pentagon had begun planning a trip to Taiwan by Pelosi's replacement as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. On January 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement opposing such a visit.
On February 1, You Si-kun visited Washington, DC (Reuters). You Si-kun is the president of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, a position comparable to McCarthy's.
|Number of forecasts||227|
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