Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

India is the world’s second most populous country and is one of the countries most at risk from climate change. More than three quarters of Indian districts are extreme climate event hotspots. Next to extreme heat, India faces floods, drought, cyclones, and cold waves. “Extreme weather events resulting from climate change led to 495,000 human deaths across the world in 1999–2018”, while the total economic damage is estimated at USD 3.54 trillion (PPP) during the same 19 years. Several reports and metrics have highlighted the specific risks of this for India. However, these risks are well understood in India and public policy is working towards addressing them. This makes the next few years crucial in an effort to reduce climate-driven risks for the country.

The Climate Action Tracker reported in late 2022 about India’s Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development:

At COP27, India submitted its Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LTS) which provides a breakdown of initiatives by sector, but these do not go beyond current policies and general future direction. Based on its LTS, India plans to continue to develop coal in the long-term. Overall, the level of information provided is extremely limited with no emissions pathway to demonstrate how India will reach net zero by 2070. It remains unclear as to whether India’s net zero by 2070 target covers all greenhouse gas emissions, or just CO2. The CAT evaluates India's LTS as "Poor".

In August 2022, India officially submitted its updated NDC targets, having first announced new targets at COP26 in November 2021. It strengthened both the value of its 2030 emissions intensity target and the share of electricity that will come from non-fossil fuel-based sources, compared to its first NDC.

In essence, India has replaced its first NDC targets (that would have been overachieved) with targets close to its current level of climate action. India needs to propose further cuts in 2030 emissions, conditional to international finance, to put India on a 1.5°C pathway.

One way to quantitatively estimate the climate risk of a country is the INFORM Risk Index by the IMF. The INFORM Risk Index is a tool to assess climate-driven risks. It considers three factors: climate-related hazards & exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. This allows for an integrated risk assessment that takes into consideration both general climate risks but also a country’s coping capacity that may alleviate these risks. Over the past three years, India’s risk index has declined slightly to 5.3, putting it en par with Malawi and Nigeria.

Year | INFORM Risk -- | -- 2020 | 5.4 2021 | 5.3 2022 | 5.3