Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
60%
Likely
Yes

Question description

The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on 21 July, 2019. According to Wikipedia, the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary elections ought to be held at 29 October, 2023. The election date has not yet been confirmed.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, just under 20% of Ukraine’s territory have been occupied, and fighting extends across much of the East and South. Further, due to the imposition of martial law and the threat of Russian military successes, there is some doubt about whether the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule. This is especially pressing as Ukraine’s EU aspirations will add to the difficulty of this decision.

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Stars
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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts58

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60%
Likely

The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on 21 July, 2019. According to Wikipedia, the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary...

Last updated: 2023-05-02
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 58

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