Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most “consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization”. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a coup raised by many.

Analysts are divided on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin’s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy.

What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today.

Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again.

How Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide.