Will Dubai's planned aerial taxis be operational before 2027?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

On February 13, 2023, Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced plans for electric flying taxis in Dubai in 2026, which will include a network of vertiports connecting key areas of the city. See also Arab News - Dubai says flying taxis to take off by 2026 from 4 stations across city and the tweet by Sheikh Mohammed with a computer-generated video clip of the planned aerial taxis by Joby Aviation, Inc.

Joby Aviation has spent more than a decade designing and testing a piloted vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, to be used for what it calls the Urban Air Mobility market. If it reaches commercial viability, it will offer zero emissions due to having an all-electric powertrain, while being less noisy than a helicopter. See also Tech Crunch - February 14, 2023 Joby flies towards 2025 commercial launch with final assembly of eVTOL

To date, early prototypes of the Joby eVTOL aircraft have completed over 1,000 successful test flights, with one remotely-piloted aircraft involved in an accident occurring in February 2022.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts110

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33%
Unlikely

On February 13, 2023, Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced plans for electric flying taxis in Dubai in 2026, which will include a network of vertiports connecting key areas of the city. See also Arab News - Dubai says flying...

Last updated: 2024-04-27
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 110

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