We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human health, and vegetation productivity. Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation. Its impact on climate change over 20 years is 86 times greater than CO2 and over a 100-year period it is 28 times greater. Reducing methane emissions can have positive effects on the climate, crop yields, and human health. According to the Climate & Clean Air Coalition:
Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown as a result of human activities related to agriculture, including rice cultivation and ruminant livestock; coal mining; oil and gas production and distribution; biomass burning; and municipal waste landfilling. Emissions are projected to continue to increase by 2030 unless immediate action is taken.
Emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector could be reduced by over 65% by preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution, recovering and using gas at the production stage, and by pre-mine degasification and recovery of methane during coal mining.
This potential reduction of emissions by increases of efficiency is highlighted by a report by the IEA, claiming that “[i]f all countries were to perform as well as Norway, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%”. The most efficient country is Norway, which emits almost 0 kg of methane per GJ compared to Russia’s 0.29.
Below is the data from 2022 IEA report on methane emissions from the energy sector by sector and year. For the year 2021, the total methane emissions from the energy sector were 135.2 Mt
| Year | Oil (Mt)| Natural gas (Mt)| Coal (Mt)| Bioenergy (Mt)| Total (Mt)| | - | | --| - | | -- | | 2000 | 43.9| 22.3 | 23.9 | 9.7 | 99.8 | | 2005 | 47.9| 26.3 | 31.9 | 10.1 | 116.2 | | 2010 | 46.4| 29.8 | 39.7 | 10.4 | 126.3 | | 2015 | 46.5| 33.9 | 42.7 | 10.1 | 133.2 | | 2019 | 45.9| 39.7 | 43.4 | 9.1 | 138.1 | | 2020 | 41.2| 38.5 | 41.9 | 9.1 | 130.7 | | 2021 | 42.9| 39.6 | 43.6 | 9.1 | 135.2 |
Against the backdrop of projected total emissions increase until 2030, understanding the trajectory of global methane emissions remains crucial due to its potential to reduce emissions without sacrificing energy output and the significant impact of methane emissions on climate change.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 61 |
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human...