Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

In February 2023, Yahoo News (as well as Delfi Estonia, the Dossier Center, Expressen, Kyiv Independent, and others) received a leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office. This document outlines a detailed plan of Russia taking full control over Belarus by 2030. Since the signing of the Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus in 1999, Russia and Belarus have been in the supranational union called the Union State. As described on the website of the President of the Public of Belarus:

Under the Treaty, Belarus and Russia have set a number of important guidelines, one of which is the establishment of the common economic space. This goal is achieved on the phase-by-phase principle. The partnership between Belarus and Russia is built on the principles of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states, responsible fulfillment by the parties of their international obligations.

This is in contrast to the leaked strategy document which outlines the following goals, according to Yahoo News:

[T]he end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”

In practice, this would eliminate whatever remains of Belarus’s sovereignty and reduce a country about the size of Kansas, with 9.3 million people, to the status of a Moscow satellite. It would put Belarusians at the mercy of the Kremlin’s priorities, whether in agriculture, industry, espionage or war. And it would pose a security threat to Belarus’s European neighbors, three of which — Latvia, Lithuania and Poland — are members of NATO and the European Union.

The document mentions a variety of measures planned, among them (i) ‘passportization’ (handing out Russian passports to local people), (ii) single monetary currency (introduction of one currency for both countries), and (iii) foreign policy (such as decisions of war). At the moment, the Union State between Russia and Belarus fulfils neither of these three criteria. Belarusian citizens are not handed Russian passports, Belarus has its own currency, and Belarus is able to make its own foreign policy decisions as seen in the decision of the Belarusian Armed Forces to not participate in the invasion of Ukraine.