On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?

• Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

As of February 21, 2023, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have both declared their campaigns for the Republican Nomination for the 2024 US Presidential Election. Early polling shows Trump as the leading candidate among Republican voters, ahead of the second-place candidate Ron DeSantis (who has not openly declared his interest in campaigning). Prediction market aggregator ElectionBettingOdds shows both Trump and DeSantis as the most likely winners of the Republican Nomination.

The Atlantic reported in February 2023:

[...] The survey found that a large majority of Republicans are ready to move on from Trump—but at the same time, more than a quarter of likely Republican voters are ready to follow Trump to a third-party bid. Two days after the poll results were released, Trump was asked in an interview whether, if he lost the nomination, he would support the GOP nominee. Trump answered, “It would have to depend on who the nominee was.” Translation: no.

The 2024 US Presidential Election is currently scheduled for November 5, 2024.