Will visits by a US President to EU member states fall below 1 visit/year for a period of at least three years before 2051?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the EU parliament liaison office in Washington phrases it:

Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to 1953. The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. The EU and U.S. are the biggest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade, play the leading roles in international political relations, and whatever one says matters a great deal, not only to the other, but to much of the rest of the world.

A strong diplomatic transatlantic relationship between the EU and the US has the potential to shape much of the global balance of power, as it has during the early 21st century. Similarly, a deteriorating of this relationship brings with it substantial geopolitical risks in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world.

One measure of transatlantic relations is the number of meetings between the US President and EU heads of state. Between 2010 and 2022, US presidents have visited EU member states a total of 39 times according to Wikipedia counts here, here, here, and here, resulting in over 3 visits per year on average. These visits are not the only relevant points of diplomatic contact, as visits be Secretaries of State or Defence also matter, but presidential visits arguably carry with them the most weight. A significant slowdown in visits over a prolonged period may be evidence of worsening relations.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts53

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20%
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The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the EU parliament liaison office in Washington phrases it:

Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 53

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