Will there be a test flight of a full-scale heavy-lift cargo airship before 2031?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
94%
Very likely
Yes

Question description

In 2016, there was a lot of buzz about the potential use of airships as heavy-lift cargo aircraft. Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. had struck a deal with Straitline Aviation to provide airships for hauling ore concentrate, supplies, and personnel between the Strange Lake mine in Northern Quebec and a transportation hub in the town of Schefferville. The plan was for Straitline Aviation to purchase twelve Lockheed-Martin LMH-1 hybrid airships from Hybrid Enterprises (the exclusive dealer of the LMH-1s) for $480 million. The intent was to save the roughly $350 million needed annually to build and maintain a 168-kilometer ice road. The operation was set to begin in 2019.

Since that time, Quest filed for bankruptcy, and Lockheed-Martin no longer markets its LMH-1. While it may appear that interest in commercial airship applications has waned, there continues to be intense interest and significant financial deals in the works for the industry.

In July 2022, the French-based cargo company Flying Whales announced they had secured €122 million to start the two-year development of their own hybrid airship program for heavy lift cargo. They plan to manufacture their first aerial vehicles in 2024 at a plant near Bordeaux.

Flying Whales is by no means alone in their efforts. In his exhaustive three-part series covering modern airships, Peter Lobner provides an overview of modern airship technology with links to more than 240 individual articles on advanced airship designs. Despite innumerable setbacks, the dream of once again filling the skies with commercial cargo airships is alive and well.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts54

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94%
Very likely

In 2016, there was a lot of buzz about the potential use of airships as heavy-lift cargo aircraft. Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. had struck a deal with Straitline Aviation to provide airships for hauling ore concentrate, supplies, and personnel between...

Last updated: 2024-04-27
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 54

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