What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆

Question description

A recent blog post from Adapt Research explains,

Recognising the potentially unbearable impact of global catastrophic risks, the US has just passed the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act.

The Act requires the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate an assessment of GCRs within one year, and every ten years thereafter.

The text of the law can be found here. In it, the law states that,

Not later than 1 year after the date of enactment of this Act, and every 10 years thereafter, the Secretary, in coordination with the Administrator, shall submit... (1) expert estimates of cumulative global catastrophic and existential risk in the next 30 years, including separate estimates for the likelihood of occurrence and potential consequences; (2) expert-informed analyses of the risk of the most concerning specific global catastrophic and existential threats, including separate estimates, where reasonably feasible and credible, of each threat for its likelihood of occurrence and its potential consequences, as well as associated uncertainties

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts50

Capture

Resizable preview:

A recent blog post from Adapt Research explains,

Recognising the potentially unbearable impact of global catastrophic risks, the US has just passed the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act.

The Act requires the Secretary of Homeland Security...

Last updated: 2024-10-01
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-15425" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />