Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with nine countries currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.

The emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.